Outlook
Contents Management report Corporate governance Consolidated financial statements Financial statements Pillar 3
We are expecting economic growth in the Netherlands and
outside to continue in 2016. Dutch households have increasing
disposable income, which will lead to increased consumer
spending. House prices and the number of housing transactions
are also expected to continue to increase in 2016 under the
influence of low interest rates and high consumer confidence.
As explained in the Strategic Framework 2016-2020, slight
contraction is again expected on the balance sheet in
2016. Businesses will still be cautious about increasing their
investment levels in 2016 and residential mortgage repayments
will remain at a high level. The initial results from our active
targeting of a smaller balance sheet will also be visible.
The further phasing-in of Basel III has a negative impact on
capital ratios in early 2016.The targeted reduction in the
balance combined with the sought-after improvements in
performance, should make a positive contribution to the future
trends of these ratios.
By implementing Vision 2016 and the Mars efficiency
programmes, Rabobank's regular operating expenses will be
lower in 2016. We do expect slightly higher loan impairment
charges, despite the economic recovery. This is the result of
individual events and non-recurring adjustments that drove the
loan impairment charges down in 2015. On the other hand, the
contribution to the national resolution fund is expected to be
higher than in 2015 and we are also expecting a contribution
to the creation of the up-front financed deposit guarantee
scheme. Bank tax remains, as expected, at roughly the same
level as in 2015.
26 Rabobank Annual Report 2015
