A decade of change In just under 15 years, Poland has gone through a spectacular transition - from Soviet satellite to independent, democratie nation poised to join the European Union on 1 April 2004. Rl has been active in the country for 10 of those years.The Word looks back on a decade of banking development and ahead to what EU membership will mean. Pastpolicies In Poland, they call the change from communist rule 'The Transformation'. But the term seems inadequate to de- scribe what has happened in Poland since the first post-communist govern- ment took office in I 989. Rabobank Polska President, Darius I.edworowski was Finance Minister in that first transi- tional government. 'lt was a wonderful time, full of potential and promise,' he recalls, 'but it was also a challenging time. The economy was a shambles. At that time, our main aim was to get the economy into some kind of stable shape - hyperinflation at 2,000% was one of the biggest problems. Economie reform was a prerequisite for the kind of devel opment that Poles aspired to in the longer term.' The Poles have done just that. Through rigid economie and monetary policies, the Polish economy has been systemati- cally controlled and developed, not least in light of the country's aim to join the FTJ. There was a glitch following the Russian crisis in 1998. I.ike other former East Bloc states, such as the Czech Republic and Hungary, Poland was a popular destination for foreign invest- ment. In the aftermath of '98, investors became more cautious. This, coupled with the subsequent recession in both the US and Europe, led to stagnation in 2001 and 2002. But the Poles fought back, with current forecasts indicating the slump has bottomed out. Estimates for 2003 show 3 to 3.5% CiDP growth. For 2004, forecasts are around 4%, with inflation at an enviable 1.5% for an EU country. Following accession, Poland 16 I The Word I

Rabobank Bronnenarchief

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