A decade of change
In just under 15 years, Poland has gone through a spectacular transition - from Soviet satellite to
independent, democratie nation poised to join the European Union on 1 April 2004. Rl has been active
in the country for 10 of those years.The Word looks back on a decade of banking development and
ahead to what EU membership will mean.
Pastpolicies
In Poland, they call the change from
communist rule 'The Transformation'.
But the term seems inadequate to de-
scribe what has happened in Poland
since the first post-communist govern-
ment took office in I 989. Rabobank
Polska President, Darius I.edworowski
was Finance Minister in that first transi-
tional government. 'lt was a wonderful
time, full of potential and promise,' he
recalls, 'but it was also a challenging
time. The economy was a shambles. At
that time, our main aim was to get the
economy into some kind of stable shape
- hyperinflation at 2,000% was one of
the biggest problems. Economie reform
was a prerequisite for the kind of devel
opment that Poles aspired to in the
longer term.'
The Poles have done just that. Through
rigid economie and monetary policies,
the Polish economy has been systemati-
cally controlled and developed, not least
in light of the country's aim to join the
FTJ. There was a glitch following the
Russian crisis in 1998. I.ike other former
East Bloc states, such as the Czech
Republic and Hungary, Poland was a
popular destination for foreign invest-
ment. In the aftermath of '98, investors
became more cautious. This, coupled
with the subsequent recession in both
the US and Europe, led to stagnation in
2001 and 2002. But the Poles fought
back, with current forecasts indicating
the slump has bottomed out. Estimates
for 2003 show 3 to 3.5% CiDP growth.
For 2004, forecasts are around 4%, with
inflation at an enviable 1.5% for an EU
country. Following accession, Poland
16 I The Word I