Sharing a Vision
WHAT's Ni wS Issue 1 January 1998
info exchange
7
From 4 January 1999, new bond issues will
be denominated in Euros.The trade in 'old'
December has traditionally been the time when Rl presents its forecast for the guilder or other first-wave currency bonds
will be gradually phased out.
coming year. Unique in the sense that these publications are not only accessible
and authoritative, our Vision - as it is called in Dutch - attracts strong media and
professional interest primarily because Rabobank International is one of the
few top financiai institutions which is prepared to publish its forecasts.This
year's Forecast publication is no exception. As Dutch minister of finance
Gerrit Zalm and Ahold CEO Cees van der Hoeven joined Herman Wijffels and
Arthur Arnold at the launch, What's NewS gives you the low down on what
our staff economists and research people have come up with.
The Forecast series began originally as a
way of placing the Dutch economy and its
(development in both a domestic and
international context. Over time, of
course, as we expand into global playing
fields, more and more depends on our
ability to analyze, anticipate and operate
in international markets. For obvious
reasons, one of the main issues explored in
Forecast 1998 is EMU and what it will
mean not only for Europe's currencies, but
also for the dollar and yen. 'The
consequences of this development is only
now starting to become clear to all players
in the market,' commented Arnold. 'But
our economists are forecasting that due to
the size and liquidity in the 'Euro' market,
which can be compared to the US dollar
market, the new currency will be a lot
more stable and have a stronger profile
than many people currently assume.'
DOMINO EFFECT
Forecast 1998 also shows that the health
and ensuing wealth of a number of
significant economies, such as the US and
Germany, look positive for the coming
year. No major problems there, or in the
countries).
'The Dutch position at
the start of 1998 is not bad,' commented
finance minister Zalm. 'Trends are
positive. But we are still carrying burdens
from the past. Economie growth is clearly
better than that of many of our major
trading partners, so we are not riding a
wave of international success.' Ahold
CEO Van der Hoeven advocated flexibility
in the financiai sector to maintain the
current positive trends and competiveness.
This approach is confirmed by Forecast
1998 which goes into underlying causes
indepth, also in relation to those major
trading partners and forecasts on their
short-term prospects.
rest of the EU. But according to Wijffels,
'this basis scenario could be
overshadowed by developments in
Asia and in the worst case could have
very negative effects on both US and
European economie growth. These
effects shouldn't be underestimated;
significant percentages of US and
EU exports are destined for the
region. However, the indirect effects will
be much more radical. Following the
strong decline in the value of local
currencies, Southeast Asia has become far
more competitive. This could lead to
increased exports from the region. Other
vulnerable economies, such as Brazil and a
number of Central and Eastern European
countries, fall victim to the domino effect.'
GOOD NEWS
While Wijffels stressed the clear warning
Forecast 1998 gives, there also appears to
be quite a lot of good news for much of
the EU. The Netherlands, whose
development and prospects still form quite
a considerable part of the study, is looking
at sound growth, with declining
unemployment (in contrast to other FJU
All this and more in Visie op/Forecast
1998, which appears in both Dutch and
English. It is compiled by the economie
research and financiai markets research
departments. Making up the team is Albert
Dierick, Paul van de Ven, Wim Boonstra,
Bernard Walschots, Wim van Assenbergh,
Geert Embrechts, Ron Hogenboom, Loes
Keuper, Eric Klaaijsen, Lianne van Leysen,
Inge Mulders, Jitzes Noorman, Angela
Paparo, Jacob Schoenmaker, Rikkert
Scholten and Lukas Daalder.
'Forecast 1998' is available for NLG 75 from
RI marketing, Wil van der Tuuk or Shirani
van Lenthe at tel. +31 (0)30 216 2804.
Dutch Finance minister Zalm
answering the press' questions.
