conference
13
■ugar Research Organization, provided an
analysis of sweeteners' eompetitiveness on
world markets. It rounded out indepth
examinations of structural changes in the
world sugar market since the introduction
of high fructose syrups (HFS) and future
perspectives to 2000 from Steve
Vuilleumier of the US commodity
ingrediënt specialists, McKeany-Flavell. He
confirmed Asia as major growth market,
especially for HFS. 'Around 75 percent of
HFS distribution involves the soft-drink
industry,' he says. 'This industry has mind-
boggling growth potential in developing
countries, like China.'
BULLISH AND BEARISH
Analyses of Asian markets was a priority at
the conference for obvious reasons. Hu
JYng Nian of the Hong Kong-based Kerry
^oodstuffs Company detailed the Chinese
experience. This country is now the world's
leading producer and consumer of
saccharin and is potentially the greatest
sugar consumer. It has veered from net
importer to net exporter, and back again. A
crucial question is whether the country can
produce the additional 3.7 million tons
needed to restore self-sufficiency by the
year 2000. 'Let's say I'm bearish about
China's sugar import this year,' said Hu,
'and hullish for the coming years.'
THAI GROWTH
Other Asian markets in focus were host
country Thailand, India, Vietnam,
Pakistan, the Philippines and Indonesia.
Many developing countries will be looking
to Thailand for a blue-print for their own
»igar industries. Twenty years ago,
hailand had no sugar 'industry'. In that
period, it has since grown so rapidly that it
is now a world export leader - not least
through joint government and private
sector cooperation. However, Dr Pichai
Kanivichaport of KST Trading and
secretary of the Thai Sugar Manufacturers
Association warned that even though the
industry will grow rapidly in the coming
seasons, 'productivity levels are not
encouraging. Our industry must focus
effort on lowering production costs and
modernizing our export sector.'
BRAZIL INCENTIVE
Present and past sugar giants Brazil and
Cuba also received special attention. Brazil
ranks joint top world exporter with
Australia. Exports have increased 220
percent in the past four years, and
according to Brent Borrell, chief market
economist at the Australia-based Centre for
International Economics, growth has
implications for the US, EU and other high-
cost producers. 'Brazil is a highly efficiënt
sugar producer with a big capacity and
incentive to increase supply. In the past few
years, an increasing percentage of cane has
been used for sugar, representing a shift
from cane-generated ethanol production
for fuel enhancement. Yet, this country still
uses two-thirds of its cane for ethanol.
Exports of sugar could expand
dramatically in the long term. That could
mean world prices would fall towards
those of Brazil. The bottom line,' he says,
'is that investors in sugar producing
capacity must be competitive with Brazil.'
STILL STRONG
Once the world's largest sugar exporter, the
loss of former markets (Soviet Union and
the Eastern Bloc) has meant a dramatic fall
STUDY IMPACT
The Sugar and Sweeteners conference
represented a real opportunity for
Rabobank to show something of its food
and agri-expertise and of the commitment
it makes to indepth research on individual
F&A sectors. 'I had no idea you produced
so many of these studies,' one participant
remarked, as he picked out The Impact of
GATT on Agriculture in the Asia-Pacific
Region from the array of publications on
offer to the conference. 'I thought the
Sugar 8c Sweeteners study was a one-off
made specially for the conference. This is
really useful.' In fact, the range of studies
flown in specially for the conference
disappeared like proverbial hot-cakes. 'We
should have brought a lot more,' said Hans
Reusch of the food and agri-research
department as the last World Grain Map
vanished from the table. The bank is
gaining increasing recognition for the
quality of these authoritative sector studies.
This was confirmed by the fact that both
the BBC World Service and Australian
in Cuba's national income. In 1989, sugar
generated 80 percent; in the space of five
years, that figure had fallen to 50. A major
restructuring of the industry is ongoing,
according to Iris Nocedo, vice president
R8cD and policy at Cubazucar. Cuba hopes
to come back as prominent exporter by
enhancing cost-effectiveness, increasing
commercial flexibility and finding new
ways and sources of finance. 'We still have
a lot of strengths,' Noceda argued.
TACKLING CHALLENGES
Intense arguments and insights, discussion
and debate - this is perhaps the best way to
summarize the Sugar and Sweeteners
Conference. What emerged was an overall,
global picture of shifting and changing
opportunities, challenges and markets.
Clearly, sugar will remain both a primary
basic food ingrediënt and an important
source of income for farmers - wherever
they live. That much is clear. Near-future
predictions for the industry as a whole
indicate ongoing growth. But the industry
will have to tackle these shifts head-on.
Perhaps the comment of sweeteners analyst
of the US Department of Agriculture, Peter
Buzzanell, best sums up the Bangkok
message: 'What the private sector has to
do, both in developing and developed
economies, is to smarten up production
and distribution of both sugar and
sweeteners.'
radio requested interviews with one of the
wine study's authors, Arend Heijbroek:
'The BBC item went out on the Europe
Today program,' he says. 'Obviously, there
is a lot of interest in the wine business in
both Europe and Australia, but this is the
first time we've been asked for interviews
on a particular study. You expect quite a lot
of attention from the sector and trade
press. But I think the fact these went out to
a general audience is encouraging. It all
helps get the Rabobank name known.'
