Rabo
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The dollar forecast
Issue 2/September 23, 1988
mense. The food and fiber system in the
US is 20% of Gross National Product. Even
without production, agriculture and farm in-
puts, food and fiber processing and distri-
bution activities still account for 13% of
GNP. In response the Branch continues to
move energetically in agribusiness lending
and commodity finance, opening Loan
Production Offices in Dallas and San
Francisco and developing a new merchant
banking capacity to engage primarily in cor-
porate finance for agribusiness compa-
nies, including intermediating in debt and
equity placement, as well as assisting with
mergers and acquisitions.
Opportunity continues also because of
the strong and expanding links between
the US and Holland. Direct foreign invest-
ment from Holland in the US grew to US$
47,000,000,000 in 1987, making the
Netherlands second only to the United
Kingdom. Imports into Holland from the
US grew to DFL 14,600,000,000 and ex-
ports to DFL 9,300,000,000. Rabobank's
central bank and member bank ciients are
involved in a significant portion of these in-
vestment and trade activities. Helping
them identify, take advantage of and
promote opportunities is the focus of the
Branch's Commercial Banking Department
and Dutch Desk.
Both past accomplishments and future
opportunities depend on concurrent suc-
cesses in establishing strong operations
and administrative departments: 'One only
gets a few chances to do it right and only
one chance to do it wrong.' Letters of cred
it, collections, and bankers acceptances are
handled quickly and well. Processing and
transfer operations move millions of dollars
each day and include funds which are part
of the bank's Quick Cheque Service.
And success generates interest, the fa
ther of reports: audit reports, reviews,
management reports, financial reports, all
provided increasing detail and with in-
creasing frequency. Efficiënt, lean and
mean Accounting and Reporting and Audit
departments keep us whole.
The New York Branch.
State of the art systems are no longer
optional, but a competitive imperative.
Real-time on-line systems provide more
data ever more quickly, challenging man
agement analytical skills to keep pace.
Electronic mail, between desks, between
states, (between nations soon) presses
the pace of information processing and de-
cision making. Our own Systems depart-
ment reviews, revises, improves, updates.
Legalistic societies where everything is
allowed unless specifically forbidden, de-
mand an emphasis on detailed, precise,
inclusive agreements, with documentation
running into volumes. Two staff attorneys
work late into the night drafting, reviewing,
advising, negotiating.
Risk management assumes a role be-
yond financial credit analysis and engages
in field collateral inspections of cattle
pens, storage facilities, and canned im-
ported tuna. The Senior Credit Manager
keeps a collateral inspector on the road
full time reporting from the nooks and
crannies of the great heartland states.
Good people The level of competition
for good business is matched only by the
level of competition for good people. In a
society with relatively few statutory and
collective agreements, and in a city where
'head-hunting' is a major modern profes-
sion, each bank is on its own to develop
policies, incentives, and procedures which
attract and retain the most qualified staff.
Human Resources staff entice, cajole, hu
mor, encourage, guide and protect a staff
of ever increasing diversity in both nation-
ality and professional background.
Dynamic environments, competitive
challenges, quick but controlled growth. All
these forces test will, strain resources, de-
mand coordination and teamwork and put
a premium on communication and under-
standing. Regular staff travel between
Utrecht and the New York branch con-
tributes to clarity; the rotating assignment
of expatriates to New York (3 at a time)
builds deeper understanding; Raboband
International helps build a sense of the in
ternational community; and Rabo-NY-news
captures some of the excitement and fun
of the US endeavor. Visits of staff from all
the branches and representative offices
are welcome and encouraged. Since our
staff collectively has worked in over 17 dif
ferent foreign banks, who knows, it is ew
likely you'll meet someone from home.
Hugo Steensma, General Manager New York
Branch.
Early this year 250 colleagues made
their forecast for the guilder/dollar ex-
change rate. The fixing date will be the
13th of December next. At the 22nd of
January 1988 the rate was 1.8765
guilders to the dollar. The average fore
cast for the end of this year is 1.9839,
with the extremes being 1.4 and
2.6569, respectively. On the lst of
August we noted an exchange rate of
2.12 to the dollar. It is too early yet to
mention the name of the potential win
ner. Last year the average forecast was
2.1169 to the dollar, with a bottom rate
of 1.737 and a top rate of 3.23.
Staff SystemsAudit, FX&FM Processing and Office Services.
H WÊgKÊM
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